Success is a peculiar thing, and there have been a number of peculiar things in the sporting world that got me thinking about the precariousness of success.
We’ve all been in that place where everything seems to go perfectly … at least for a time … everything seems almost effortless. All our actions, choices and responses seem to magically fall into place and we temporarily achieve miraculous results.
What can cause such a thing?
How often have you made a New Year’s resolution and for the first several weeks you have the stamina, the courage and the gusto of the newly converted. You’re so pumped up that what seemed difficult or strenuous before your new vow, suddenly seems natural and effortless.
A number of events in the sporting world started me thinking about this. We see individuals or teams go through a period of extraordinary success, so much so that we’re inclined to hand them the win before the next game is even played – if not actually then psychologically and emotionally – but then “life” seems to happen and the invincible become vulnerable, the unbeatable suddenly collapse beyond our wildest imaginations.
How does that effortless string of success suddenly snap back and sting us worse than if it hadn’t happened at all?
I’ll never forget watching an NHL hockey game two winters ago when Team A seized total control from the opening faceoff and scored their first goal in less than a minute of play. They didn’t just score a goal, they dominated play so thoroughly that it looked like the other team was under some hallucinogenic. For the next ten minutes of play, Team A had such complete mastery of the game it was almost hard to believe that Team B was made up of professional players of relatively equal skill.
During the first ten minutes Team A went on to score two more goals, seemingly at will, and there it was, 3 – 0, and they hadn’t broken a sweat. It was at that point that the color commentator said what I then thought was one of the dumbest statements I’d ever heard. He said it’s very important that Team A score the next goal or it could prove to be disastrous. He went on to say that an early three-goal lead is a strange thing and that he has seen it happen time and time again when an “easy” three-goal lead in hockey can come back to haunt a team in a bizarre, almost inexplicable way.
At the time I scoffed at such a nonsensical notion, after all, Team B had barely touched the puck. I wrote the announcer’s comments off as a cheap attempt to keep people from switching channels in a game that was all but a foregone conclusion.
Although I was thoroughly convinced that this game was all but over, I stuck around because I wanted to see just how high Team A could rack up the score. I was thinking that they might actually break a scoring record and maybe notch 16 or 17 before it was mercifully over.
But then a strange thing happened, Team A played the rest of the period without scoring another goal. When period two began, Team B was still scrambling all over the ice, but they scored a fluky goal and just like that you could sense something shift. By the end of the second period it was 3-2 and Team B was beginning to take control. By the time the final whistle blew, Team B had won the game 4-3.
I thought about that game a great deal afterward, and more specifically I thought about what the announcer had said about the precariousness of a three-goal lead.
At the end of the game the commentator expanded on his earlier statement. He explained that the inherent danger of an “early” and “easy” three-goal lead is this; it’s not quite enough to be safe, but it’s often enough to allow complacency to set in. If a team has a two-goal lead, they will seldom take their foot off the pedal, and with a four-goal lead, they’re usually far enough ahead that even complacency will usually pull them through, but a three-goal lead can bring about the worst scenario – complacency together with no margin for error. The reason there’s little or no margin for error is because as soon as the score changes from 3-0 to 3-1, the seeds of doubt or panic can quickly set in.
Just last week (January 5, 2011) Canadian hockey fans witnessed this very disaster play out at the World Junior Hockey Championships in Buffalo. Before the tournament began, Team Canada was slated as a good team, but certainly not the best. This tournament was forecast to be dominated by the Americans, Swedes and maybe the Russians. Canada however came storming out of the gate and thoroughly beat the Russians, the Czechs, and the Finns by a combined score of 23 – 6. They lost to the Swedes in a shoot-out and then handily beat the Swiss and the favored Americans. Team Canada was now playing for the gold medal against the surprisingly resurgent Russians.
For the first two periods of the Gold Medal match, Canada outshot, outskated and outhit the Russians to the point that I vividly recall saying after Canada racked up an easy 3-0 lead, that this one was all but history. But then a strange thing happened … Russia managed to score a goal early in the third period to make it 3-1 and then that mysterious steel-clawed force seemed to squeeze the life out of Team Canada. They suddenly looked rattled and within mere seconds the score was 3-2. At this point momentum had clearly changed sides and before the final whistle blew Russia had won 5-3, leaving the entire hockey world in stunned disbelief.
I don’t know how this “precarious” 3-0 score relates to other sports such as football, soccer, boxing or baseball etc. but there is that “3-0” place where the lead is both substantial but inexplicably precarious.
I relate this story because I don’t think for a moment that this psychological phenomenon is confined to sport. In fact, sport just serves as a convenient example. I relay this story because I think it perfectly exemplifies the easy 3-0 psychology that we all face from time to time. We’ve all experienced it. We’ve all witnessed it.
Let’s return to the earlier example of a New Year’s Resolution. Let’s suppose we begin the New Year with a vow to start and maintain an exercise program. We begin with bull dog determination, and for the first month or two or even three, we adhere to our vows religiously. We never miss a workout unless dire circumstances intervene. We’re on a roll. We actually enjoy our new routine and the results are spectacularly satisfying. After a time we’re so certain that we’ve finally installed a “permanent” new habit and lifestyle that we become “cocky” enough to begin skipping the odd work-out here and there – after all – in the big scheme of things missing an occasional workout will hardly prove to be a problem … or will it?
It is precisely here that we are playing with a 3-0 lead. We have that confident swagger of an easy lead that has not yet been fully earned. Because of our false beliefs and our ill-placed faith in willpower, we begin to take our foot off the pedal because of a false sense of security. And then, before we realize it, we’ve not only relinquished the lead, but we’ve lost the game. Our new vow and our new exercise program has suddenly come unglued and we find ourselves right back where we started. We’ve lost that edge that kept us motivated and sustained. It’s now gone and we just can’t get it back.
Like that color commentator warned; A easy 3-0 lead can be a most precarious place to be.
The next time you’re on a roll, and things seem to be going naturally and effortlessly, be very aware of your natural tendency to let your foot off the pedal. Keep pressing. Get that fourth goal – and just to be on the safe side … get a fifth.
